Birth of a Nation

Barack Obama will be sworn in at about noon today as the 44th President of the United States of America.

It's a ceremony to be sure. Despite the economic times, much money is being spent to make sure this is a ceremony people will remember. People say it's the worst economic times since the Great Depression, but the depression has unemployment rates of 25% and another 25% were partly employed. The US is maybe 7-8% unemployed right now, which is high, but not like the Great Depression.

I was talking to an elderly Indian (from India) who felt that the significance of Obama being the first African American president was not that great since, in his mind, blacks and whites were pretty much equal now. Even if that were so, and it's hard to claim that for a variety of reasons, it's still significant that an African American is being elected given that none have been elected before.

The funny thing is this. Everyone knows he has a white mother. Everyone knows he was raised by his white grandparents. His father abandoned him. But many whites and even many African Americans look at Barack as African American. He simply has the facial features of someone African American, even if his values were shaped as much by growing up in white America as the next person.

Obama has, of course, embraced the African American culture. He moved to Chicago. He married someone with strong ties to Chicago in Michelle Obama. He joined an African American church before he left it. But it is as much an adopted culture as anything.

In the end, does it matter? Obama embodies this notion of unification of white America and black America, but he was elected by mostly ignoring the issue of race or to emphasize his white roots, given that he visually appears black.

And even if he is half-white, does it matter? As long as we perceive him to be African American, then he is.

One fascinating aspect of his Presidency is how he used Abraham Lincoln as inspiration. He started his campaign in Springfield. He took a train ride from Philadelphia to Washington much like Lincoln. Perhaps there's a bit of irony that it was Lincoln who was in far greater danger of being assassinated on his route to DC. We have reached a time where most people wouldn't even think of it, though I suppose it only takes a small number to carry out such a nasty act.

When FDR assumed the Presidency, he reassured Americans through radio, then a brand-new technology. In those days, citizens still respected the Presidency, and they were reassured by his words. These days, Americans are far more savvy, so far more cynical. They aren't swayed as much by words, and often feel a dissenting voice is their right. And this means conservatives! Bush would have been happy if he could have squelched dissent much like old time Soviet propagandists.

It's funny, but as well read as Obama is, surely he's read the Lincoln-Douglas debates with two candidates running for the Illinois senate (although Obama won, and Lincoln lost). In these debates, Lincoln was accused of being sympathetic with slaves and blacks which he vigorously denied. He felt that, in the forseeable future, blacks would not stand equal with whites.

Now that could have been political talk designed to get him elected. He could have changed his mind over the years as he became President and was President. But at least at one point in his career, he wasn't that noble person, that mythological figure. Obama knows, of course, that Americans view Lincoln as a myth and know very little about him.

Despite the accessibility of the Internet, the desire to read about Lincoln is far less than reading the latest installment of Harry Potter. We prefer to think of Lincoln as the man that freed the slaves, the President that presided over a Civil War, as Honest Abe, and finally as the President assassinated by a Southerner.

Would Lincoln have thought, some 145 years after his Presidency that the United States would have suffered a Great Depression, the civil rights movement, and elected a man born of an immigrant would be President? Perhaps he would have.

But we don't have to dream that. On the day after Martin Luther King's observed birthday, it's reality.

Clothes Make the Man

I was listening to NPR this morning and there's a buzz about what Michelle Obama, the new First Lady, will wear to the various inauguration balls (yes, plural). The fascination by the fashion industry and indeed by the average Jane means Obama must make her decisions wisely. She can't be too flashy, nor too expensive. She should exude class.

Men rarely run into this problem. The tuxedo has meant that most men can look pretty much alike and so therefore no one cares what Barack Obama will look like. It's interesting no one has pushed this concept so men can break out of the rather rigid mold.

But I don't want to talk about the clothing of the new President nor his wife. I want to talk about my own clothing.

Yesterday I donned a black long sleeve pullover of some sort with dark blue, let's call it black, pants. Black and more black. I was criticized by a co-worker for using a uniform color scheme throughout.

He recalled an incident when he was merely in the sixth grade and his fellow rugrats chided him for his lack of fashion couture. Ah, those 11 year old twits, thinking fashion when they should be worried about peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, or perhaps their multiplication tables. This made such an impression on his impressionable mind that he is now hyper-sensitive to this basic "rule" of clothing.

Most people have no problems with this, especially guys. They wear blue jeans and probably lack too many blue colored shirts. So it always contrasts well.

Indeed men's clothing are often so bland that the variations occur above the waist, where jeans will often suffice every day of the week.

And so it goes.

The Reality of Obama

People always said about Bill Clinton that there was Bill Clinton, the campaigner, and Bill Clinton, the governor, and I mean that as someone who governs, even as the President. Bill Clinton, the campaigner, was always more successful than Bill Clinton, the governor, although he did eventually get quite a few things done.

Were it not for the OPEC crisis and Iran and Carter's lack of insider savvy in Washington, Jimmy Carter may have been one of the best presidents. He looked at alternative energy sources, helped nations that warred to achieve peace.

Obama comes in on a wave of hope, and some have already contended that there's no way that he can accomplish everything he says he will do (although some have also criticized that he hasn't actually promised too many specifics either). To be fair, compare that to "W". What things has he promised and delivered? Both he and his father governed war, so that it became the issue, and not the US.

I'll agree that we don't know how liberal Obama is. The fact of the matter is that he's not so charismatic that whatever he says, people do. This means he has to deal with the reality that the last 8 years, and really the last 20 years, have seen a move to the right, anchored by religious conservatives. Even the fiscal conservatives have to be concerned, although they tend to get away with it because they bankroll campaigns, and polticians aren't always so pure in their motivations.

Because of this, Obama will have to pick his battles carefully. When Clinton first came to office, the first two big issues he tackled were gays in the military and health care reform. Both went badly because there was huge resistance to them. The military was too conservative to listen to Clinton, and the medical lobby also didn't want reform of health care. This cost Clinton political capital (although, to be fair, he did win re-election rather handily).

It helps that Obama has a Democratic majority, but don't expect that Republicans won't try to fight this, as they have in the past. We'll see how committed McCain is to his promise of trying to assist Obama, as he is still a senator and seemingly more moderate than most Republicans (I feel all these years of Bush support was out of ambition to be President).

I think Obama will look to some safer topics like infrastructure reform as well as trying to phase out US involvement in Iraq. We like to flag-wave and claim the US only goes to war for noble purposes, but these wars aren't free, even as we borrow money to finance them. It will be hard for the economy to recover if the government keeps paying for an expensive war.

I'm surprised how many conservatives pronounced gloom and doom based on zero economic knowledge. They simply assert statements with no reason at all. This was the same kind of assertion of socialism, terrorism, Christian extremism. In other words, McCain's campaign was simply throwing as many names as Obama to see what would stick, primarily because McCain knew his ideas didn't resonate enough (he resorted to the same old, lower taxes argument that Republicans always trot out).

To combat this, I think Obama will look to using grassroots organization to move some of his "agenda" forward. This will be completely separate from the usual Congress stuff like the war or infrastructure reform.

Anyway, he's got a few months to set up a staff, and so it won't be for a few months into the new administration before we see what happens (the first big thing is who gets picked as his replacement as senator of Illinois).

Whither Prop 8?

Starting in 2004, one of the keys for conservatives to get elected was to put gay marriage on ballots. Often, these measures were conservative in nature, reaffirming straight marriage. The idea was often a twofer. Convince conservatives that if they didn't vote for conventional marriage, then this would open the floodgates and allow gay marriage and gay lifestyle to run rampant, and while such voters were being baited to come to the polls, they'd also vote conservative.

Except in normally very blue California, the current polls suggest Proposition 8 which affirms conventional marriage (ironically supported by a treasure trove of Mormon funding which lead to misleading ads) is likely to pass. This is even as many celebrities are against it, many leading Democrats are against it, and even Republican governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is against it.

The problem is, alas, a lack of education. It is both a combination of fear and loathing for gay marriages from socially conservative Latinos and African Americans who voted increasing Democrat, despite not supporting many of the more socially liberal views. Indeed, were the Republicans not so reliant on race-baiting to convince conservative poor religious whites to vote against minorities, you could almost imagine African Americans supporting Republicans.

I can see the Republican party splitting in two directions. One is moderate Republicans which is heading to the center on social issues, but staying conservative on fiscal issues. The other way, which seems more likely and was spearheaded by Huckabee, is to be socially conservative, but still looking at supporting the poor. This side would have to embrace African Americans and Latinos. The problem, for now, is the lack of a charismatic candidate, and no, I don't consider Sarah Palin that person.

The key to real changes is improved education. Religious conservatives believe in loyalty to religion above all. If a kid lacks education, this seems a bonus, even if this makes people increasingly susceptible to the weakest arguments.

Gay marriage is a perfect example. Statistics show that LGBT people make up maybe 5% of the population. Even if every one got married, it's still a very small percentage of American marriages. Even so, there's a perception that being gay is a choice and that people can be "wooed" into it, even as there's really no evidence of this. This is that fear and people's general discomfort as well which they back by pointing to a religious tome to back their prejudices.

If Obama is to truly make the changes he wants, he really has to figure out how to make education more valuable to people, but that is tough. Education is a multi-year goal that not everyone agrees. While there is no guarantee that well-educated people are going to be more liberal (there are bright conservatives), the chances are still far better than if they are not well-educated.

To be well-educated is not about knowing more facts than the next person. No, it's about thinking critically. It's about listening to someone's statements and pointing out its inaccuracies. Too often, people listen to an argument and if it sounds good, they think it is good. They lack the mental acumen to see if the argument truly makes sense. Obama and his wife, with their training as lawyers, have learned to dissect arguments, argue its pro and cons. It's perhaps not surprising that Clinton was also a lawyer.

They've all learned, of course, that you can't present standard logical debate arguments to the average American who can't appreciate such arguments. Appeals are made to emotion. I'm moved by Obama's soaring rhetoric too, but it's true that emotion is just that. You can use it to lead and convince, but it leads and convinces with the heart, rather than with the mind.

If Prop 8 passes, it will be because a very blue California is still easily swayed by misleading ads, and even as they voted for Obama, they couldn't bring themselves to vote No to 8.

Obama himself wasn't willing to expend political capital to put his full support behind no on 8. In the end, he knew that was a powder keg that could have derailed his presidency before it started. Now he has to tread a fine line to figure out how to deal with this issue. Certainly, he's likely to avoid it for a while as he tries to pass other initiatives.

Consider the start of Clinton's administration where capital was wasted on gays in the military and for health care reform where strong opposition built up and Clinton had to back down. President Obama will look for safer ground before he tries something with more controversy.

Indeed, if he thinks he can win in 2012, then he may push all those initiatives to the second term, unless his first term goes so swimmingly well that he'll tackle issues few people thinks he will.

Still, I think few people would have thought gay marriage would have gained this much traction. It's not there yet, as it's still being used as a wedge issue to convince religious conservatives to vote conservative, and while certain states have voted against it, there's a possibility that, with the right Supreme Court mix, it could eventually be defeated through the courts. Indeed, court appointments will become a huge issue.

What Obama will do, I'm sure, is to use the grassroots organization to build support from the ground up even during his presidency, and may represent the most novel politician ever, if he takes advantage of it.

Now the question is how will he lead?

Obama 08

So I was driving home when I noticed this car ahead of me with the license plate Obama 08. Not a bumper sticker. A vanity plate. From West Virginia. In Maryland?

Weird.

Wonder if it bodes well?

Obama-lama

I caught about half of Obama's acceptance speech last night, which was held in a football stadium in Denver. Like many things in politics, where the stakes are so high, things are planned and planned and planned.

Spontaneity isn't permitted because a politician could find themselves in a George Allen moment spewing out obscure invectives on a Indian-American ("macaca") and having it taped and YouTubed. Being a politician where the media follows you 24-7 is like being in Big Brother. At some point, you let your guard down, you forget the camera is on you, and you say things you'd normally say, but which would be far too offensive for the delicate ears of Americans.

We're always looking for the one negative thing to hang out hats on, to give us some reason to dislike someone.

On the flip side, with preparation, one needs to hit a laundry list of points. Obama had to show he was tough ("kill bin Laden"), that he'd go after terrorists, that he was worried about the economic future. These were the substance points. He then wanted a classy way to go after McCain, who accused Obama of being less than patriotic, which compelled Obama to wear a, sigh, flag pin (why not a Uncle Sam tophat).

The outdoor venue was made to feel like indoors, with a near presidential setup, as if he were addressing the nation from, if not the White House, then at least some place of stature. The only evidence that this was outdoors, other than the frequent pannings to the throngs of people scattered throughout, looking at Obama, the gladiator, was the wind, that cooperatively blew the flag from time to time.

The Daily Show filmed hours before the speech made fun of this in a prescient way by saying "Obama brought out the sun", which itself was a joke about when the segment was taped, but also the kind of magic Obama was expected to elicit.

A few days ago, I heard a woman exclaim on radio, that she had not been a support of Obama until she heard Michelle Obama, and that her speech felt genuine to her. Let's face it, speechmakers have had a long time to practice their talking. This isn't to say it isn't genuine, only that public figures going to sound a lot better than the average Joe, Jose, or Josephina.

It's why you watch a movie with good actors. They're so good, you forget they are acting, but you realize they are acting, because if you put a camera in front of regular people living their lives, you'd be bored senseless, and wonder why these folks "couldn't act". Actors give an amped up version of reality, pushing the emotion buttons to 11 or more.

Politicians do the same. Obama, in this respect, is old school. Once upon a time, our best orators inspired us with elevated rhetoric. We knew they knew more words than we did. After a while, we ceded (did we ever have it?) the mantle to the Brits who have always been much more polished at extemporaneous speaking than us poor schlubs.

Speakers like McCain and Dole and even Shrub prefer a more folksy style fraught with verbal gaffes that make them seem like one of us, despite the immense wealth each of these guys (Dole possibly excepting) have.

We get the politics we deserve because most of us, frankly, don't understand the complexity of politics, nor care. This is the kind of populace China wants--docile, unaware, only there to serve the greater glory of the main government. Were the public more knowledgeable, the debates might be more substantive. But realize that even the more intelligent amongst us prefer watching movies that move us, rather than those that merely tickle the intellect, but leave us feeling empty.

Americans look at politicians and try to imagine them as people. They don't look at them like they might a doctor. A doctor with bad bedside manners might be perfectly acceptable if he can save your life. A president with bad manners, well, he'd never be president in the first place, at least, not now, because the public watches his every move.

People harken back to days of Lincoln and Douglas when both ran for the Senate (Douglas won, by the way) and criss-crossed the Illinois landscape, giving half hour speeches on many a different topic, speeches thought out in length. Was the average American more knowledgeable then? Or perhaps the politicians didn't care, their level of discourse was high enough to satisfy themselves, public be d*mned.

Ultimately, though, the proof is in the pudding. The actions of a leader matter, rather than the speech making. Yet, this is why Clinton was so popular. Great speech writers combined with humor, a bit of anger, enough to show this guy wasn't going to put up with Republican shenanigans even as he was involved in his own.

To that end, Obama gave a speech that tried to be noble, above board, respectful, and hopefully, the sound of that, the weight of that, will offset the typical Republican playbook who would find reasons to slander Jesus if He were anti-American.

Perhaps the Republicans will sound trite and petty, and people will heed the words of Dennis Kucinich, relegated to a mid-afternoon speech, when he urged attendees to "Wake Up, America".

Obama's speech that looked forward drew inspiration by looking back, by taking the sentiment of Kennedy and Martin Luther King, and showing us the words and people that influenced Obama.

Understated, elegant, authoritative.