Roger Dodger

They said it was an off year for Roger Federer. He has 12 losses this year, which is nearly twice what he's had in the previous four years. It's strange to say that because Federer has reached the finals of three of four Grand Slam majors, and the semifinals of the other one.

To compare, Nadal reached two semifinals and two finals. Now, Nadal did win both those finals and beat Federer in the those finals.

Still, you wouldn't think a guy that reached three finals and a semifinal of the four majors was having a bad year. Such is the life of Roger Federer who people expect to win at least 2 of every 4 majors he's in. He's remarkably consistent, except that everyone expected Rafael Nadal to take that leap into transcendency.

Only no one told Andy Murray. While Nadal is the undisputed king of clay, and has become the best or perhaps the second best grass court player in the world, there are many more people who can give Nadal a run for his money on hard courts. For one, there's number 3 Novak Djokovic, who did just that against him in Cincinnati. For another, there's now Andy Murray, who I believe is one of the smartest, if not the smartest, male tennis player out there.

Most players have a one size fits all strategy. They play the same way against most people, and it usually does the trick. Many fewer things to think about this way, don't you know? Murray, on the other hand, seems to adjust his tactics to whoever he plays. All that thought makes it tough to decide how to play someone. First on Murray's list appeared to be world's number one, Rafael Nadal.

Now Nadal has a style that's bruising, and while it hurts others, it hurts himself in the process. He came into the US Open weary, but even a weary Nadal can beat most players. Except Murray. Murray used a combination of no pace and hard pace to throw Nadal off his game until, dare we say it, Nadal was frustrated and impatient, two traits that rarely define Nadal's game.

By outthinking and outplaying Nadal, many people, including myself, thought Murray had a good shot at beating Roger Federer. However, many others thought, with his strong victory over Novak Djokovic, that the four time consecutive winner of the US Open wasn't ready to concede his crown, that the hugeness of the moment, so familiar to Federer, and so new to Murray, would be enough to rile Murray. And perhaps the Roger Federer of old, the one that was so dominant, that seemed poised to knock Pete Sampras's record 14 majors into a footnote of history, might be back.

And with a superior serve and aggressive play, Federer put a 6-2 beatdown on Murray in the first set, bewildering the poor Scot, before he started to string a few points together. And when Murray had a chance to break, and failed to challenge a call that turned out to be clearly out, and then lead to a Federer hold instead of a Murray break, Murray's chances, which seemed to be decent, began to dim.

Federer managed to break in the second set as well, and with two sets firmly in hand, Federer started to really relax. He drop-shotted, he chipped and charged, he served and volleyed. Murray, who had been content to hit off-pace shots, hoping to elicit errors from Federer, found himself retreiving hard hit shots which only weeks ago had not made it inside the lines, which had let players that hadn't had a whiff of victory against Federer, feel they had a chance.

Murray, ranked number 6, wasn't really feeling sorry for himself. With a successful summer, he was ready to move up to number 4 in the world, ahead of Ferrer, ahead of Davydenko, guys who play consistent, guys who make the semifinals, but not guys who people seriously consider as potential winners of the majors. Murray was better than these guys, and finally, he strung enough victories, played confident enough tennis, played smart against good players, and pushed himself ahead of those guys to be number 4 in the world. And he's had 2 victories over Djokovic. Though he lacks the bruising precision of the 3 players ahead of him, he plays with his brains, and perhaps soon, the power and precision will come for Murray too.

He's only 21, after all, much like the power youth movement. Nadal, 22, Djokovic, 21, trying to fend off the youth of 19 like del Potro or Querrey or Nishikori.

Meanwhile, Federer has asserted that he isn't quite ready to cede the mantle of king. Not yet, anyway. He's going to have to go back to the drawing table, figure out how to get his game to resemble years past, rather than the year that is. He's in a battle against time, to win 2 more majors before age gets to him, before the new kids start to draw even.

Federer's smiling now because he knows his time hasn't past yet, that the old man of tennis, at 27, still has some punch for the young'uns. Maybe he'll learn a lesson from Murray on how to play a Nadal, and maybe that will serve him well, lead him to a French title that is missing from his prodigious resume.

Who knows? The dream of break 14 majors that had been put on hold is now breathing life again, and that elegant player from Switzerland is all smiles. The year wasn't all bad, after all, don't you know. The golden boy of doubles took something positive and made one more golden trip to New York.

Murray Rolls

Rafael Nadal came into the US Open ranked number one for the first time coming into a major. He had gained number 1 when Roger Federer played poorly at the two master series tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati, losing to Gilles Simon and Ivo Karlovic, respectively. Those losses, combined with Nadal's semifinal loss in Cincinnati (and win in Toronto) meant Nadal would become number one shortly after the Olympics concluded.

Players that have reached number 1 have traditionally had difficulty winning the next major they are entered. Perhaps it's the pressure, or the fatigue of having to play so many matches to get to number 1.

Coming into the US Open, there were the usual suspects of favorites. Federer was the four time defending champion. Roger had been having an off-year for him. He had nearly twice as many losses as he's ever had. He lost to Nadal badly in the French, then lost to Federer in a five set thriller, and then lost early in the next three tournaments he was in. Many people didn't think he had what it took to regain the title this year, despite having reached the semis of Australia, the finals of the French and Wimbledon.

Djokovic, who had a wonderful 2007, and played well in 2006 too, was becoming a solid number 3. When he won the Australian Open, many thought he might be poised to take number 2 from Nadal, and there were chances. But each time Djokovic had an opportunity, he faced Nadal, and Nadal held him off, and held to number 2.

And of course, there was Nadal, who had been the bridesmaid for so long, ranked number 2, until a series of hardcourt victories meant he would become number 1, replacing the magical Roger Federer, who suddenly wasn't himself.

Outside of the three favorites, a few other players were considered contenders. Andy Roddick was the only top player to forgo the Olympics and stay in the US to prepare. This turned out to be a little bit of disaster. In LA, Roddick lost in the final to unheralded Argentine, Juan Martin del Potro. It would turn out that del Potro would have a magical summer winning four tournaments in a row to head into the US Open.

Roddick then lost to Viktor Troicki, a Serbian who found himself in Washington DC when he discovered he wouldn't be in the Olympics after all. These losses encouraged Andy Roddick to make a break with his brother, and work with Patrick McEnroe who knew Andy's game because he was Davis Cup captain.

James Blake also plays best on hard courts. He missed out on a bronze medal, but beat Federer en route. His risky tennis has never lead him to the semifinals or finals of a major, but otherwise, he's quite tough.

But the real outside shot was Andy Murray. Fresh off a five set Wimbledon win over Richard Gasquet, but a drubbing by Rafael Nadal in the quarterfinals, left Murray hoping for better results in the US. Hardcourts has always been Murray's best surface. He won the 2004 US Open juniors, the year Gael Monfils had won 3 of 4 junior Slams.

Murray reached the semifinals of Toronto, but lost to Nadal in straight sets. However, that tournament was a breakthrough of sorts because Murray beat Djokovic for the first time in Toronto. He would then win Cincinnati over Djokovic the following week. Djokovic had played a brilliant match to beat Nadal in the semifinals.

Murray barely escaped Jurgen Melzer, a hard hitting Austrian who had beaten Agassi back in the day. Murray stayed patient until Melzer started to cool down. When Murray played del Potro, who had been considered an up-and-comer, he took advantage of del Potro's on court time which had been a few hours longer than Murray, and Murray's fitness. En route to a straight set win, Murray found himself mired in the middle of a fourth set, but hit slice forehands, and off-pace shots, while moving around del Potro, trying to make fatigue del Potro's enemy.

del Potro eventually lost as he was too weary to chase down any more shots.

Against Nadal, Murray varied the pace, trying to open up hard hit forehands or down the line backhands. Two things helped Murray on the first day. First, Murray served fantastic. Nadal had a tough time tracking down Murray's serve. Second, Murray returns Nadal's serve better than nearly anyone. Murray stands 10-12 feet behind the baseline, then rushes up a few feet as Nadal serves.

Nadal had complained a bit about fatigue, but he's so good, and his opponents are often so intimidated trying to play Nadal that they play way above themselves, making numerous errors. While Murray's errors outnumbered Nadal's, his shots seemed very much in control.

Murray played lots of shots up the middle, to remove the angle that Nadal likes to work with. Murray also knows that Nadal doesn't like to give away points, so if Murray were to play shots up the middle, Nadal was content exchanging shots, rather than go for an ill-advised winner. Murray himself would then look for a short-ish ball to try to open up the court.

Murray was serving so well the first two sets that Nadal didn't see any break points, while Murray had broke twice in the first set, then had to work his way to a tiebreak, before winning that.

In the third set, Nadal got up an early break before the rains came. Most people felt the break would help Nadal who would get coaching and try something different. Indeed, Nadal became more aggressive the next day, while Murray was not nearly as hot, having some troubles returning serve, and dumping easy shots into the net. As both players held serve, Nadal took the third set, 6-4.

The fourth set had a very long game where Nadal staved off 7 break points, and eventually held on his second game point. That was to get to 1-all. Murray served, but his inability to break lead to some poorly played points, and Murray found himself a break down. Murray looked like he had simply collapsed and that he'd have to wait until the fifth set to recover. Nadal took the lead 2-1. Nadal then held to 3-1, and Murray needed his hold to 3-2.

At this point, Murray was feeling better again, and again started to work on Nadal. Murray used a combination of very deep shots, changes of paces and height, to cause Nadal to make errors he's not accustomed to. Murray eventually broke back to tie the match.

Murray was up 5-4 with Nadal serving. Murray was at deuce, and played a long point where he would hit the ball inside out. Nadal, rather than go for a winner, hit a hard shot somewhere between down the line and down the middle. Murray could have gone for the winner. Instead, he looped it crosscourt, forcing Nadal to have to reach up. He then hit another shot inside out, and then another crosscourt. Eventually, he hit a shot inside out, and attacked the net. By that point, Nadal was a bit fatigued, and gave Murray an easy volley. Nadal was really tired, more than he usually ever is.

On the next point, Nadal got a short ball and decided to drop shot, probably showing more evidence of fatigue. Murray ran the shot down, hit the pass, and got himself into the finals.

Murray played a very intelligent match, using tools to his advantage. In particular, Murray has a very compact backhand. He can hit down the line very accurately, as well as hit a powerful crosscourt shot. This makes his backhand versatile and dangerous, and he doesn't need much time. Even when Nadal managed to hit a hard forehand that forced Murray to run, Murray has such great defensive skills that he invariably made Nadal have to hit another shot he didn't expect.

Credit Murray with coming back and playing a solid match against Nadal when Nadal came out more aggressive, and looked like he had mentally beaten Murray. However, it turned out it was Nadal who was beaten.

Rarely do you see a player like Murray who adjusts how he plays to his opponents. More often than not, you see a Nadal-like player, who plays the same way, regardless of opponent.

Now Murray sees if he can be the roadblock to Federer winning his 13th major and his fifth US Open in a row. Federer got a day's rest and is hoping that he can find the same magic that allowed him to play the best match he's played since Wimbledon against Novak Djokovic. However, Djokovic lost to Murray twice, and now Murray's beaten a guy he's never beaten before in Nadal. Can Federer figure out a way to beat Murray before Federer really does get too old?

The answers will be found out Monday when the finals are played.