Cincy Semis: Djokovic vs Nadal

The Wimbledon men's final, arguably the best played men's final in history, lead many a commentator to say it was a transition from Federer who had long dominated men's tennis to Nadal, the heir apparent. Nadal has had an incredible two months, winning several of the clay court tournaments leading to the French, then powering his way to a French title without a drop of a set, then winning a grass court tournament for the first time ever (Queen's) and taking Wimbledon.

Everyone figured that hard courts would be Nadal's last hurdle. It's rare for a clay court player like Nadal to find his second best surface to be grass. Nearly every great clay court player, except Borg, played much better on hard courts than grass. The high bouncing ball typically favors a clay courter's style. Nadal, however, has managed to tame the low bounces at Wimbledon, partly because Wimbledon has altered the surface to make it play more like a slower surface.

In Toronto, at the Roger's Cup, Federer hoped to recover and play a good tournament, but found himself knocked out by Gilles Simon. Djokovic was also looking to come back, but played a game Andy Murray, who beat Djokovic. Murray had chances against Nadal, but Nadal won and then had an easy final.

In Cincy, Federer managed to win against Robby Ginepri, but it took three sets, then he lost to Ivo Karlovic, losing two tiebreaks to the 6'10" Croatian. Again, it looked like Nadal might roll on.

While everyone was claiming Federer was sliding a slippery slope, his long dominance coming to an end. Throughout, Djokovic was the forgotten man. He'd play Nadal tough on clay, but lose. He played him tough on grass, but lost there too. He had an early loss to Marat Safin at Wimbledon. Then, he lost to an aggressive Andy Murray, whose Wimbledon semifinals seemed to rejuvenate his attitude.

Still, Novak is way too good a player to stay down for too long, and as he made his way to meet Nadal, the key was how Djokovic would play against the soon-to-be number 1 player, Rafa Nadal. Hard courts is Djokovic's best surface and Rafa's worst surface, and only worst because other players can use their power on hard courts and give Rafa trouble.

Djokovic prefers the high bouncing balls on the hard courts. With his superior serve, he can win cheap points on hard courts, and then power his shots. Djokovic clearly hits harder than Rafa, and the hard courts rewards his power. Rafa is steadier, can create more angles.

So this match would be a bellwether letting fans know how far Djokovic had fallen. Commentators had said his serve had been off, but the last two matches, he was back to serving the way he was used to. This is the one area Nadal has a weakness. He has a good serve, but it's not a huge weapon.

Still, it was a surprise when Djokovic came out of the gates roaring. Novak took a page out of Federer's playbook, hitting down the line forehands for winners. Nadal is vulnerable to hard hit shots to his forehand, often rushing the shot and unable to get it back in play. Djokovic then began attacking Nadal, and even when Nadal could push Djokovic around, Novak would dig balls and put it in play, before striking with a hard shot. Novak punished Nadal's second serve like no other player.

Despite one close game where Nadal nearly went up 0-40 on Djokovic's serve, only to push an awkward volley a little deep instead, Djokovic rolled, He powered to two breaks of serve and it looked as if Nadal wasn't covering the court well nor dictating play.

Nadal finally held serve, but Djokovic held for the 6-1 win.

Despite the competitive nature of their matches, few of Nadal and Djokovic's matches have gone three sets. Usually, one wins in straight sets. The one recent exception was Hamburg where Djokovic lost in three sets to Nadal. In Queen's, it was a straight set win. The French was straight sets too. So it boded well for Novak that he won the first set.

The second set saw Nadal fighting tougher. The winners Novak hit in the first set were being replaced by errors. Nadal was fighting more and winning his serves more easily. However, at 5-all, Djokovic began playing more aggressively, and eventually broke. He followed it up with a good service game and won the match, 6-1, 7-5.

Nadal may appear to be the next great player, but when Djokovic is on, he can give Nadal as much trouble as anyone. Djokovic can hit flatter shots and harder serves and be aggressive on returns. He's also less likely than Federer to his wild shots.

Recall that Nadal was in danger of dropping his number 2 ranking to Djokovic several times, and nearly did so. Djokovic seems undeterred feeling it's only a matter of time before he can give Nadal trouble on surfaces that aren't clay (and he gave Nadal all he could handle at Hamburg).

The next round will be interesting because Djokovic recently lost to Murray. Murray has been playing a lot better lately. Unlike Henman, the prototypical serve and volleyer whose groundstrokes were good enough to compete against modern players, Murray is more of a groundstroker. He's got a great backhand, and is learning to play more aggressively instead of hanging way back. Like Djokovic, Murray has great touch hitting drop shots.

So the final should be a statement game for Djokovic showing whether he's back to the form that lead him to a win at the Australian Open.